If you've been watching the property market from the sidelines and wondering whether this is finally a good time to make a move, the answer is more nuanced than a simple yes or no. But here's what I can tell you: the power dynamic between buyers and sellers has shifted in a way I haven't seen in several years, and if you understand where that shift is happening, you can use it to your advantage right now.
Full-year 2025 private residential transactions (excluding ECs) reached 26,492 units, according to URA data, up 20.69% year-on-year and the highest annual volume in four years. Developer sales drove much of that surge, rising 67.18% on the back of a strong new launch pipeline. The resale market grew more modestly at 4.05%.
But the momentum cooled entering 2026. URA recorded just 5,413 private residential transactions in Q1 2026, down 25.45% year-on-year. Price growth is still positive, with the URA Property Price Index up 0.88% quarter-on-quarter and 3.41% year-on-year in Q1 2026, but landed home prices actually dipped 0.40% quarter-on-quarter after a strong Q4 2025. And in the HDB resale market, prices edged down 0.1% in Q1 2026, the first quarterly decline in nearly seven years, according to HDB data.
At the luxury end, the numbers tell an even starker story. Only 21 CCR units priced above S$10 million changed hands in 2024, compared to 100 in 2021, according to market transaction data. OrangeTee senior VP Christine Sun attributes this largely to the 60% ABSD imposed on foreign buyers in April 2023, which effectively removed a key demand pillar from the top end of the market. Over 200 luxury listings above S$10 million were sitting on PropertyGuru in the Orchard area, many with multiple agents marketing the same units.
In my view, calling this a "buyer's market" requires a lot of qualification. What I'm seeing on the ground is a tale of three very different markets operating simultaneously. The OCR and RCR new launch segment, particularly well-located, quantum-appropriate projects, is still largely seller-favoured. Developers are disciplined on pricing and the queue of genuine upgrader demand hasn't gone away.
Where buyers genuinely have the upper hand is in CCR resale, older freehold stock with high absolute quanta, and the landed segment. In the resale market broadly, sellers are generally needing to lower their price expectations by around 5% to close deals, based on what's being reported in the market. Listing periods are stretching beyond three months routinely. That's a real shift. In 25 years I've watched this pattern before: when listings start sitting and buyers start comparing rather than rushing, negotiating power transfers quietly but meaningfully.
Here's the thing most people miss. Quantum has become more important than price per square foot. An older 1,200 sq ft unit at S$2,200 PSF totals over S$2.6 million. A newer 900 sq ft unit at S$2,600 PSF comes in under S$2.3 million. With TDSR capping what you can borrow based on household income, the total price tag is what determines whether you can actually complete the purchase. Buyers who are still anchoring on PSF comparisons are working with the wrong framework.
If you're an HDB upgrader, you're sitting in an interesting position right now. The HDB resale price index just recorded its first quarterly dip in nearly seven years. That's not a crash, and I wouldn't treat it as one. But it does mean the price gap between HDB resale and private property may begin narrowing through 2026. If you've been holding out for HDB prices to soften a little before selling, that moment may be starting to arrive. For your purchase, keep your quantum target in the S$1.8 million to S$2.0 million range if you're an upgrader, and look seriously at ECs if you qualify. They've continued to sell strongly and represent genuine value relative to private condos at comparable locations.
If you're buying in the private resale market, particularly in the CCR or looking at older freehold developments, you have more leverage than you've had in years. Don't rush. Take your time to compare across primary and secondary markets. Quieter buying windows, specifically September after the Hungry Ghost Festival, December, and February around Chinese New Year, consistently offer less competition and occasionally better pricing on remaining inventory. That advice holds true this cycle too. For investors, RCR and OCR remain the stronger plays for rental yield given the supply and demand dynamics in those regions. Target properties near MRT nodes, business clusters, and schools.
If you're a seller, especially of an older CCR or landed property, I'll be direct with you. The dominant buyer today is a local upgrader, not a wealthy foreign investor. High absolute quanta are harder to absorb under current TDSR constraints. If your unit has been sitting on the market for more than three months, your price expectations need a reset, not another round of marketing. The data suggests sellers who acknowledge current market realities close deals. Those who don't are adding to the inventory statistics.
The Singapore property market in 2026 is not uniformly tilted toward buyers or sellers. It depends entirely on which segment you're in, what your quantum looks like, and how realistic your expectations are. The buyers who win in this environment are the ones who do their homework across multiple options, understand what their borrowing capacity actually allows, and move decisively when the right unit appears at the right price. If you want to talk through where you stand specifically, whether you're buying, selling, or trying to time an upgrade, reach out to me directly. I'm happy to give you a straight read on your situation.
WhatsApp me at +65 9750 1055 or visit keithtanboonkee.com to get started.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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