If you've spent the last few months comparing BTO options, scrolling through resale listings, and still haven't pulled the trigger, you're not alone and you're not being indecisive. You're actually behaving exactly the way the market data says most Singapore buyers are behaving right now. The question worth asking is whether that caution is serving you, or costing you.
Let's start with HDB. According to HDB flash estimates, resale prices grew just 2.9% for the full year 2025, compared to 9.7% in 2024. That's the slowest annual growth since 2019. Then in Q1 2026, the HDB Resale Price Index actually dipped 0.1%, the first quarterly decline since Q2 2019.
Transaction volumes tell an even sharper story. Resale flat volumes fell 27.2% in Q4 2025 quarter-on-quarter, and the full year 2025 saw 26,169 resale transactions, down 9.7% from the year before. At the same time, HDB launched 29,975 flats in 2025, about 41% more than 2024. OrangeTee's chief researcher Christine Sun attributed a chunk of that volume drop to buyers actively choosing attractive new BTO launches over resale options.
On the private side, the picture is more nuanced. URA data shows private residential prices rose 0.9% in Q1 2026, with non-landed homes like condos and apartments up 1.3% in the same quarter. But developer sales softened and resale volumes dipped. Total private transactions for 2025 reached 26,492 units, up over 20% year-on-year, which was the highest in four years. So prices are holding up, but buyers are being far more selective about what they're willing to pay for.
In my view, the phrase "harder to please" actually undersells what's happening. Buyers aren't being difficult. They're being rational. When you're looking at a price-to-income ratio that DBS Research notes is approaching 14.6x, which is near the top of its historical range, you think harder before you sign anything. That's not fear, that's discipline.
What I'm seeing on the ground is a split market. The best units, the ones with genuine location premiums, good remaining lease, and the right size, are still moving. Some are moving fast. But average or poorly positioned units are sitting longer, and some sellers who priced based on 2024 momentum are now having uncomfortable conversations. The Q1 2026 HDB resale index dip of 0.1% won't devastate anyone's balance sheet, but it's a signal worth taking seriously if you're a seller who hasn't adjusted your expectations yet.
In 25 years I've watched this pattern before. It's not a crash. It's a quality filter. The market doesn't fall apart. It just becomes much less forgiving of bad decisions. The buyers who are "harder to please" are the ones who will end up with better assets. The sellers who refuse to read the room are the ones who'll be waiting the longest.
If you're an HDB upgrader, here's the thing most people miss right now. About 13,480 HDB flats are expected to reach their Minimum Occupation Period in 2026, nearly double the 2025 figure. More MOP supply means more competition when you eventually sell your flat, and potentially more softening in resale prices. If your upgrading plan depends on getting a strong exit price from your current flat, the window is narrowing, not widening. Move with a plan, not with hope.
If you're looking at private condos, pay attention to where supply is concentrating. According to ERA data, roughly 64% of 2026 private launches are in the OCR, covering areas like Tengah, Bayshore, Lentor, and Tampines. That's where the volume is, and that's where HDB upgrader demand is being funnelled. If you're buying in that segment, the entry pricing may look accessible, but so does the competition. For investors specifically, the CCR luxury market above S$10 million is effectively a buyer's market right now. Foreign demand in that segment has collapsed sharply since the 60% ABSD for foreigners was introduced in April 2023. ERA data shows more than 98.6% of 2025 residential transactions were made by citizens and PRs. If you hold a CCR luxury unit and you're waiting for foreign buyers to return, that's a long wait with real carrying costs attached to it.
If you're a first-timer weighing BTO against resale, the calculus has genuinely shifted. HDB is planning to launch around 19,600 BTO flats in 2026, and recent policy moves, including the upcoming income ceiling increase from S$14,000 to S$16,000, will bring more households into BTO eligibility. More supply, more eligible buyers, and new ballot chances for families with children means BTO competition could actually heat up. Don't assume that option is always going to be sitting there waiting for you either.
The Singapore property market isn't broken and it isn't booming uniformly. It's bifurcated, it's policy-shaped, and it's rewarding informed buyers while punishing complacency on both sides of the transaction. Buyers who understand what they're actually buying, and why the location and lease and timing matter, will come out ahead. Sellers who price based on yesterday's numbers will keep wondering why their unit isn't moving. If you want to talk through where you sit in all of this, whether you're planning to buy, sell, upgrade, or invest, reach out to me directly on WhatsApp at +65 9750 1055 or visit keithtanboonkee.com. A 20-minute conversation now can save you a very expensive mistake later.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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