If you own an older condo in Singapore, especially one that's 25 years or older sitting on a decent land parcel, what's happening right now in the land market could be the most financially significant development for you in the next two to three years. And if you're a developer or an investor watching where the next wave of new launches will come from, the signals are pointing in one very clear direction.
Government land sales have become increasingly competitive. Developers are bidding aggressively for GLS sites, and the land prices that result from these tender battles mean new launches on those sites often can't be financially viable below roughly S$2,200 psf. In the CCR, we're already seeing new launch prices in the S$2,500 to S$3,500 psf range. Even in the RCR and OCR fringe, districts like 15, 16, and 26 are seeing new launches priced between S$2,000 and S$2,800 psf.
Here's what makes that significant. The gap between new launch prices and resale condo prices has widened to as much as 58% in some segments. That means older resale condos are trading at a massive discount to what it costs to replace them with new stock. That gap is precisely the engine that drives collective sales. Owners see the upside. Developers see the margin. Both sides have reason to move.
The market is also still rising, just more steadily. Private residential prices grew 1.2% in the first quarter of 2026, the slowest quarterly increase in eight quarters, and the consensus view is for around 2 to 4% growth through the rest of 2026. That's not a runaway market. It's a stable one. And stability, not frenzy, is actually what makes en bloc transactions viable because developers need predictable exit pricing when they model their returns.
In my view, we are not heading into a repeat of the 2017 to 2018 en bloc frenzy. I've watched that cycle up close and the conditions were different. What I'm seeing now is something more measured and, honestly, more sustainable. Developers have learned from the mega-site disasters where they couldn't clear inventory within the five-year ABSD remission window and ended up paying punishing stamp duties. They're not going to repeat that mistake.
What I think happens instead is a wave of boutique collective sales. Sites under S$100 million in land quantum, yielding somewhere between 50 and 100 units, in locations with genuine demand. These are easier to build, easier to sell out within the ABSD timeline, and they suit the risk appetite of developers in the current environment. The transaction at Loyang Valley for around S$880 million shows that appetite for sizeable private residential land has returned, but that's an outlier. Most of the action will be smaller and smarter.
Here's the thing most people miss. The URA Master Plan has been quietly marking certain older precincts for higher density redevelopment, especially around upcoming MRT stations along the Cross Island Line and other extensions. An older freehold condo sitting below its allowable gross plot ratio in one of these zones isn't just an ageing asset. It's latent land value waiting to be unlocked. In 25 years I've watched this pattern before, and the owners who understood it early were the ones who benefited most.
If you own a unit in an older private condo, now is a good time to genuinely assess whether your development has en bloc potential. Key markers include freehold or 999-year tenure, a site area that allows for higher density under current planning guidelines, a manageable number of units where 80% consent is achievable, and proximity to transport nodes or rejuvenation precincts. Don't wait for your management committee to bring it up. Start the conversation yourself.
If you're a private condo investor looking at where to place capital, this trend has a direct implication for your entry point strategy. Older freehold condos in the right locations are trading at that wide discount to new launches precisely because they haven't been redeveloped yet. The upside isn't just rental yield. It's the optionality of a collective sale premium on top of whatever the market does. That dual return potential is something you don't get when you buy a brand new launch at S$2,800 psf.
If you're an HDB upgrader thinking about your first private property, the en bloc cycle matters to you for a different reason. When successful collective sales lead to new launches in established locations, supply in those pockets goes through a temporary gap period before the new project completes. That can push up resale prices in the surrounding area. If you're planning to buy into an estate where en bloc activity is starting to heat up, factor that into your timing. Prices in those micro-markets tend to firm up before the headlines arrive.
The conditions for an en bloc comeback are real, grounded in land economics, not sentiment. GLS competition is intense, replacement costs have structurally shifted up, older stock is trading at a deep discount to new launches, and developers need land they can work with efficiently. The cycle won't look like 2017 but it doesn't need to. A quieter, boutique-driven wave of collective sales can still be transformative for the owners involved and meaningful for the broader market. If you want to understand whether your property sits in the path of this trend, or if you want to think through how to position yourself around it, reach out to me directly on WhatsApp at +65 9750 1055 or visit keithtanboonkee.com. This is exactly the kind of conversation I have every week with owners and investors who want to get ahead of the market rather than react to it.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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