Q1 2026 just handed us a clear signal: Singapore's property market is splitting into two stories. Private prices held steady with just a +0.3% quarterly gain, the slowest in six quarters. HDB resale prices actually slipped -0.1% for the first time since 2019. For upgraders, investors, and buyers trying to make sense of where to put money, this divergence matters because it changes what your options actually cost and what your timing should be.
The private market feels stable on the surface. That +0.3% quarterly growth keeps prices broadly unchanged from where we were at the end of last year. But here's what's really happening underneath: sales volumes crashed 37% to 40% quarter-on-quarter, down to between 4,041 and 4,401 units. A lot of that was the Chinese New Year lull in February, which always softens activity, but the bigger picture is that fewer people are transacting.
What's interesting is that new project launches actually picked up 20% to around 3,149 units, and they're selling well. Developers reported a 72% average take-up rate across six new projects. That tells me there's real demand in the right locations at the right price. It's just that the overall market is moving in slow motion.
Non-landed prices are where the action is. They rose 1.0% this quarter after a small dip last quarter, and the gains were spread across all three regions. OCR non-landed units jumped 1.3%, which is actually faster than the core or rest of central. Meanwhile, landed prices took a real hit, dropping 1.8% quarterly. If you're thinking about a landed property right now, that's a warning sign worth paying attention to.
The HDB resale market just went negative for the first time since mid-2019. Prices slipped 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, which might not sound dramatic, but it marks a real shift. The index had been flat or rising for years, so even a small dip signals something changing. Median five-room flat prices sit at S$748,000, up 1.1% quarterly, but that masks what's happening across the market overall.
The concerning part is what's coming. We're looking at 13,484 HDB flats hitting their Minimum Occupation Period this year. That's a 94% jump from the 6,973 units that hit MOP in 2025. When that much supply floods the resale market in a single year, prices don't usually go up. Sellers who've been banking on their HDB equity to fund a private upgrade are going to find that equity doesn't stretch as far, and they'll face more competition trying to sell.
There's a silver lining for certain segments. Million-dollar HDB resales jumped 18% quarter-on-quarter, hitting at least 412 units. Larger four-room and five-room flats are moving better, with transaction volumes up 18.5% and 13.6% respectively in those categories. That suggests buyers who want space are still active, but buyers looking at smaller or older flats are holding back.
If you're an HDB owner thinking about upgrading to private, the math just got tighter. Your HDB isn't worth as much as it was last year, so the equity you can pull out is smaller. At the same time, OCR private prices are rising (+1.3%), which means the entry-level condos and non-landed projects you might be targeting are getting pricier. That spread between what you can afford to sell and what you need to spend is narrowing.
The bright spot is that the overall private market is still slower in terms of activity. Sales volumes are down significantly, which means less competition for the units you're looking at. If you're ready to move, you've got room to negotiate because sellers aren't sitting in a hot market. The key is timing it right before the next wave of launches in Q2, which is expected to bring more OCR supply to the market.
For investors, this bifurcation is worth studying closely. Private residential held 3.3% growth over the full year in 2025, which is genuinely stable. HDB is now on a downward trajectory. That suggests if you're building a portfolio, the private non-landed segment, especially OCR, is where the momentum is. Landed properties, though, are looking shaky with that -1.8% quarterly drop.
The private market is holding because demand remains genuine despite lower volumes. Developers are bidding confidently in government land sales, which signals they believe in future demand. GLS tenders have been meeting or coming close to benchmark prices, which wouldn't happen if the market was truly weak. The 72% take-up rate in new projects is another solid indicator. Buyers are selective, but when a project hits the mark on price and location, they show up.
HDB resale is different. Supply is about to overwhelm demand. New BTO launches keep coming, so even as resale flats hit MOP and flood the market, there's also fresh new housing entering the system. Buyers have a choice between older resale flats and new BTO units, and that choice keeps resale prices under pressure. Additionally, five quarters of flat or slowing growth have already conditioned buyers to be patient, so there's no urgency pushing them into resale purchases.
The market isn't broken, but it's definitely not uniform anymore. Private is holding its own, HDB is adjusting downward, and that creates real opportunities if you're positioned to act on them. The window for upgraders and private buyers is narrowing before Q2 supply lands. If you're sitting on the fence or trying to figure out your next move, now's the time to get clear on what your actual numbers are and what the market will bear.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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