If you have been waiting on the sidelines for Singapore property to correct, the last few weeks have quietly moved the goalposts again. Record land bids have pushed the price floor higher, and that changes the maths for anyone planning to buy or sell this year.
Start with Lentor. The Lentor Central site just drew a top bid of 1,278 psf ppr from a GuocoLand-led consortium. That is a 38.9 percent jump from the 920 psf ppr paid for the adjacent Lentor Gardens plot barely a year earlier.
This is not a one-off. Weeks later, the Dunearn Road site in District 10 was awarded at 1,625 psf ppr, a 15.3 percent premium over a neighbouring plot sold less than 12 months before. When developers keep paying up for land despite higher costs, they are signalling confidence, and they cannot launch new units below those break-even levels.
What I am seeing on the ground is simple. Rising land cost puts a floor under replacement pricing. For sellers, that supports your current valuation. For buyers, it is a reality check, because waiting for a crash runs straight into the rising cost of the land these homes sit on.
Finalised URA data for the first quarter of 2026 confirms the Outside Central Region is doing the heavy lifting. Overall private prices rose 0.9 percent for the quarter, but the segments told different stories:
Here is the part most people miss. The RCR rose even with zero new launches that quarter. That is a classic value play. As OCR new launch prices push toward 2,100 to 2,200 psf, buyers look at RCR resale, see the gap narrowing, and move.
Public housing hit a milestone. The HDB resale price index slipped 0.1 percent quarter on quarter, the first dip in nearly seven years. Do not read that as a retreat though.
The market has simply gone segmented. Even as the index flattened, million-dollar flat deals hit a record 1,598 in 2025, and a million dollars is now the median resale price for 5-room flats in at least three towns.
In my view, this is a narrowing window for top-price exits. Buyers are starting to push back on aggressive asking prices, especially in older or fringe estates. If you are upgrading, your flat equity is likely near its peak, and a clean top-of-market exit is a now decision, not a someday decision.
Supply is the quiet support under the private market. Unsold uncompleted private homes, excluding ECs, fell to 17,029 units, the lowest in seven quarters. Against a ten-year average absorption of roughly 8,768 units a year, that is about 24 months of cushion.
With a shelf that lean, developers have little reason to discount, even if monthly sales normalise.
Suburban no longer means cheap. Pinery Residences in Tampines averaged 2,546 psf, and Tengah Garden Residences came in around 2,120 psf. In the prime districts, the usual 20 percent-plus new launch premium over resale is compressing. In District 9, River Modern launched at an average of 3,266 psf, closing the gap with nearby resale in River Valley. That forces a real choice between the new-build lifestyle and the immediate space of a resale unit.
The market has shifted from a liquidity-driven phase, where everything floated up together, to a capital-driven one that rewards precise pricing and location-specific value. For sellers, aspirational pricing does not clear anymore, so price within about 5 percent of market value or buyers will simply walk. For buyers, watch the return of positive carry. With SORA down around 1.14 percent, holding costs are easing, which is exactly why developers are holding firm on price even as volumes slow.
If you are weighing a move this year, the real question is whether your priority is immediate lifestyle or long-term capital preservation. That answer is different for everyone, and it is worth talking through before you commit. Message me and we will map it to your numbers.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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