Q1 2026 just handed us a snapshot that tells two very different stories. Private condo prices are holding steady at +0.3% quarter-on-quarter, but sales volumes just fell 40% from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, HDB resale prices have done something they haven't done in nearly seven years: they've dropped. If you're thinking about buying, selling, or upgrading right now, this is the moment to understand what's really happening beneath these numbers.
Let's be direct about this. We sold 4,041 private units in Q1 2026, compared to 6,699 in the previous quarter. That's a sharp 40% pullback. New private sales excluding ECs fell even harder, down 60% to just 1,294 units. After a record 2025 where we moved 10,815 new units and developers launched 11,482 new units across the island, the market is clearly taking a breather.
Here's what I'm seeing on the ground though: this isn't a panic. Demand is still there. We launched 3,149 units in Q1 2026 (up 20% from the previous quarter), and take-up at new launches is holding strong at 72% to 93%. The demand-supply link that's defined this market for years is still intact. What's changed is the pace, not the direction. After such a massive 2025, some cooling was inevitable. Buyers are being more selective, not disappearing.
The real question is what happens next. Launches are likely to dry up post-2025's record, which means if you've been sitting on the fence waiting for more choice, that window is getting narrower. The inventory will tighten, and prices will probably feel more sticky on the way up, but also more protected on the way down.
This is the part that affects most Singaporeans directly. HDB resale prices just fell 0.1% quarter-on-quarter for the first time in roughly seven years. That doesn't sound dramatic until you realize that over 13,000 new HDB flats are hitting the market and reaching their Minimum Occupation Period in 2026, compared to about 6,500 in 2025. That's a doubling of supply hitting resales at once.
If you're an HDB owner looking to upgrade to a condo, you're facing headwinds on the sale side. But here's where it gets interesting: Executive Condominiums (ECs) are currently sitting about 20% cheaper than comparable new non-landed private condos in the OCR (Outside Central Region). That's a genuine arbitrage opportunity. ECs give you the space, facilities, and feel of a private condo, but at a price point that's been compressed by the current market dynamics.
For upgraders, the practical move is to act sooner rather than later. Your HDB resale value isn't going to recover quickly with 13,000 new flats flooding the secondary market. But the EC market is being supported by exactly the upgraders like you, and prices there are holding up far better than pure private residential. The gap of 20% between ECs and new OCR condos won't last forever.
Private residential prices have grown 3.3% over the full year 2025, and we're projecting around 3% growth for 2026. That might sound okay on paper, but it's coming against a backdrop of rising land costs. Land prices have been climbing at 5.5% annually since 2019, and developers pass those costs straight through to new launches. When land is getting more expensive and prices are only growing 3%, the margin story gets tight.
Non-landed private homes in Q1 2026 grew 1% quarter-on-quarter, which is respectable. But landed private homes fell 1.8% in the same period. That divergence matters if you're thinking about which segment to invest in. Landed plots are getting expensive, and the returns don't justify it right now. Non-landed segments, especially in RCR and CCR, are where the demand is concentrated, but they're also where repricing risk is highest after the strong 2025.
What I'm telling investors right now is simple: don't expect 5-6% annual growth anymore. Your target should be 1-3% price growth plus rental yield. That means your tenant selection has to be sharp, your property management has to be tight, and your holding period has to be longer. The easy money from pure price appreciation is over.
The counterintuitive part of this market is that prices aren't falling even though sales are down 40%. That sounds wrong, but there's a simple reason: launches are tracking closely to sales. In 2025, we launched 11,482 units and sold 10,815 units. That near 1:1 ratio means there's no oversupply pileup. Developers are releasing product in sync with demand, which props up prices because inventory never becomes desperate.
That stability is also being helped by something less obvious: external wealth. Some of our buyers are funded by parental gifts, overseas equity gains, or crypto holdings. Household incomes have been growing only 3% to 4.5% annually, but property prices have grown 5.5%. The gap gets bridged by money from elsewhere. That's a strength when markets are good, but it's also a volatility risk if those external wealth sources dry up.
Interest rates are also settling. We're in a 3% to 3.5% range now, which is moderating the pent-up demand that drove 2025's record volumes. The market is finding a new equilibrium where prices hold but growth slows.
The market isn't broken, it's just cooling down to a more sustainable pace. That's actually healthy. But it means the dynamics that worked in 2025 won't work the same way in 2026 and beyond. The time to move is before the launch pipeline really empties out and prices start getting more unpredictable.
Drop me a message on WhatsApp at +65 97501055 or visit keithtanboonkee.com if you want to talk through your specific situation. I'm here to help you make the right call for your circumstances.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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