Singapore’s Q1 investment banking fees hit 3-year high of US$187.8 million - The Business Times

If you've been sitting on the fence about your next real estate move in Singapore, the signals coming from Q1 2026 are worth paying attention to. HDB resale prices just posted their first quarterly decline in seven years, while private residential growth has slowed to a near-standstill at just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. What does this mean for you? It's a market in transition, and depending on where you are in your property journey, it could create real opportunities.

The HDB Resale Shift: A Window Opens for Upgraders

For the first time since around 2019, HDB resale prices have actually dropped quarter-on-quarter. We're talking a -0.1% decline, which might sound small on paper, but it's significant psychologically. For years, HDB owners have watched prices climb steadily, making the jump to a private condo feel further and further out of reach. Now that trend has reversed, at least temporarily.

What's interesting is that HDB resale volumes have picked up sharply, rising 17.6% quarter-on-quarter to 6,179 units. That tells me owners are testing the market, and some are moving. If you're an HDB upgrader who's been waiting for a better entry point into private residential, this could be closer to that window than you think. The private condo market isn't exactly on fire right now, but it's not crashing either. You'll have more breathing room to negotiate and shop around than you did a year ago.

Private Residential: Growth is Real, But Modest

Let's be straight about what the numbers are showing. Private residential prices grew just 0.3% in Q1 compared to the previous quarter. Non-landed units performed better at 1.0% quarterly growth, which reversed a small decline from Q4 2025. What I'm seeing on the ground is a market that's finding its level after the stronger momentum of late 2025.

Here's what matters: the analysts are still forecasting 3% price growth across the full year 2026. That's a solid, healthy increase, not spectacular but not stagnant either. The reason we're not seeing faster quarterly growth right now is partly a volume story. Private residential sales hit 4,041 units up to mid-March, which is down 40% quarter-on-quarter from 6,699 in Q4 2025. That's a notable slowdown, and it reflects both the natural lull after a busy final quarter and some caution that crept into sentiment in late February.

But here's the reality check: new launch sales in 2025 grew 67.2% year-on-year, and new launches themselves were up 72.7%. The market hasn't dried up. What's happened is that supply and demand have found a better balance. Developers aren't desperate to cut prices, but they're also not seeing crazy queues anymore. That's actually a healthier dynamic than the frenzy we saw in 2024.

Why Land Costs Matter More Than You Think

If you're wondering why developers aren't suddenly dropping prices despite the slower volumes, land costs tell the story. Government Land Sales (GLS) land is averaging S$1,463 per square foot (ppr) as of February 2026, compared to S$1,060 ppr back in 2019. That's an annual average increase of 5.5% over that seven-year stretch. When developers are paying that much for land, they have to price their projects accordingly, or the numbers don't work.

This is a structural support for prices. It means we're unlikely to see dramatic discounting even when volume slows. In my view, this also explains why well-located projects with good transport access and amenities continue to attract genuine demand. Buyers understand that these locations are constrained, and they're willing to pay. It's not irrational exuberance. It's just how Singapore's property market works when land is expensive and finite.

The Landed Market Takes a Bigger Hit

While condos have held up reasonably well, the landed segment has struggled more noticeably. Landed prices were down 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, and volumes crashed by 28% to just 416 units. That's a significant pullback, and it suggests that buyers in the landed space are being more selective or have stepped back to reassess valuations.

The landed market is typically more volatile because units are fewer, more expensive, and less standardized than condo units. When sentiment softens, landed properties often feel the impact first. For condo-focused buyers, this actually gives you more leverage. Developers and sellers are paying attention to the landed slowdown, and it's making them think twice about aggressive pricing in the condo segment. It's a reminder that not all property segments move in lockstep.

What This Means For You

Let's cut to what you should actually be thinking about right now:

• If you're an HDB upgrader: The combination of flat HDB resale prices and slowing condo market momentum means you have more negotiating power than six months ago. You're not in a bidding war. That said, prices are still expected to rise 3% this year, so don't sit around waiting for a crash that probably won't come. Focus on well-located projects with transport access, especially in the OCR or fringe areas where value is better.
• If you're a condo buyer: The 0.3% quarterly growth is telling you this isn't a hot market, but it's not a buyer's market either. New launches are still attracting solid demand, and developers are maintaining discipline on pricing. You have time to be selective. Don't feel pressured to rush. Look at projects coming to market in the next quarter or two, compare carefully, and understand that your bargaining room has expanded slightly since last year.
• If you're an investor: The steady demand-supply balance supports the 3% growth forecast, but transaction volume is softer than it was. The upside is real, but it's not explosive. Land costs will keep prices supported, but you should be cautious about the landed segment for now. City-fringe locations with development upside or strong rental demand are where the smart money seems focused.
• For sellers in any segment: If you're thinking about moving, understand that the market rewards specificity. A well-positioned project with good amenities, transport, and a compelling price story will attract buyers. A mediocre unit in a mediocre location will sit. Agents can help you position your property correctly, but don't expect the market to do the work for you right now.

The bottom line is this: we're in a measured market where fundamentals still support steady appreciation, but the frothy momentum from 2024 has given way to something more deliberate. That's not a bad thing for buyers. It means your research matters more, your timing has some wiggle room, and patience actually gets rewarded.

Want to talk through your specific situation? Whether you're upgrading, buying, selling, or investing, I'm here to help you navigate what comes next. Drop me a message on WhatsApp at +65 97501055, or check out more detailed insights at keithtanboonkee.com. Let's figure out your next move.