Q1 2026 just threw us a reality check. Property prices climbed just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, the slowest pace in six quarters. Sales plummeted 40%. If you're thinking about buying, selling, or upgrading in Singapore this year, you need to understand what's really happening here, because it's not all doom and gloom.
Let me be direct: we've cooled off after last year's 3.3% surge. Volume matters, and the numbers show it. We went from 6,699 private home sales in Q4 2025 down to around 4,041 units by mid-March. New launches hit 3,149 units (up 20%), but new sales excluding ECs dropped 60% to just 1,294 units. That's a big swing.
Here's what I'm seeing on the ground though. Despite the volume crash, take-up rates on new projects are holding strong at 72%. That tells me buyers are still there, just more selective. They're not panicking, and developers aren't slashing prices into a race to the bottom. The market is catching its breath, not collapsing. We had a huge 2025, and some moderation was always coming, especially with the Chinese New Year lull in February hitting Q1 hard.
Not all regions are moving at the same pace. The RCR got hammered, down 55% in sales to 1,174 units. OCR saw a 29.7% drop to 1,788 units. CCR was the most resilient, falling just 17.9% to 1,187 units. What does this tell you? Buyers are still willing to pay for proximity, amenities, and established neighbourhoods. They're just not rushing into the heartland right now.
On the price side, private residential index gains came mostly from non-landed homes, particularly in the OCR. Landed properties actually went backwards, down 1.8% for the quarter. In my view, that's about caution on stretched price tags. High-end landed homes have gotten really expensive, and when you combine that with job security concerns from overseas instability, buyers are pumping the brakes. They're choosing substance over speculation.
Here's something significant: the HDB resale price index fell 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026. That's the first decline since Q2 2019. For seven years, HDB prices have been on a steady climb. Now they've ticked down, even if it's just slightly. This matters because HDB upgraders have been squeezed by dual costs, attempting to sell one flat while buying up into the private market.
This price dip eases that burden. If you're an HDB owner thinking about upgrading to a condo or EC, your selling position just got a touch more forgiving, even if profits are smaller. The entry point for upgraders is improving, which is real relief after years of watching prices climb relentlessly. Don't expect major falls, but the urgency to sell fast and cheap is gone.
Executive condos remain the smart middle ground. The median price gap between ECs and new non-landed homes in the OCR sits at about 20%. For a first-time upgrader or an HDB owner looking to move up without going full private, that's meaningful savings. ECs are also outperforming in terms of buyer interest, which tells me upgraders are getting smart about value.
What I'm seeing is that upgraders haven't stopped upgrading, they've just become pickier. They're comparing EC against private, and in many cases, the EC wins on price and practicality. Yes, there's the 99-year lease to think about, but for many buyers looking to move within the next 10 to 15 years, it's not the dealbreaker people make it out to be.
When sales volumes drop 40%, supply and demand dynamics shift. It's not a buyer's market exactly, but it's less of a seller's market than it was. In the RCR particularly, where volumes collapsed 55%, sellers who are flexible on price and terms are getting deals done. Buyers have more room to negotiate, ask for repairs, or push back on asking prices.
In the CCR and OCR, things are steadier. Prices held up, demand stayed robust. If you're in those areas, you're in a stronger negotiating position as a seller. For buyers, you'll need to be competitive, but you're not in a panic-bidding situation anymore. It's a more normal market where preparation, timing, and the right agent actually make a difference.
The Q1 data is a snapshot from mid-March. Final numbers drop on April 24th, and they could shift slightly. But the trend is clear. We've moved from boom mode to steady-growth mode. That's healthy. That's sustainable. And honestly, it's better for most buyers and upgraders than the alternative.
If you're thinking about your next move in Singapore property, now's a good time to get clear on what you actually want and what you can afford. The market's not going anywhere, but it's not getting cheaper either. Reach out if you want to talk through your options. I'm here to help you make a smart decision, not a rushed one.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
💬 WhatsApp Me