A seller at The Waterside just walked away with a S$3.38 million profit. That's real money, and it tells us something important about where Singapore's property market is heading right now. If you're sitting on HDB equity, thinking about upgrading, or looking to invest in condos, this story matters to you.
Let me break down what happened. Back in 2015, when The Waterside had just completed its TOP, someone bought a 5-bedroom unit for around S$1 million, or about S$500 per square foot. Fast forward 11 years, and that same unit sold for S$2.38 million, or roughly S$1,190 per square foot. That's not luck. That's what happens when you buy into a growing district, hold smart, and ride the upgrader wave at the right time.
What's impressive isn't just the absolute profit. It's the price per square foot growth. We're seeing The Waterside at a median of S$1,450 psf now, up 8 percent year-on-year. Transaction volumes are picking up too, with 12 units moving in Q1 this year compared to 10 in the same quarter last year. That 15 percent jump in volume tells me demand is real and sustained.
Here's what's happening across D19 more broadly. The median resale price for condos in this district is now S$1.32 psf, up 12 percent year-on-year. That's faster growth than the island-wide median of 9 percent. Volume is up 10 percent too. What does this mean? More buyers are choosing this district, and prices are responding.
I'm seeing this pattern over and over on the ground. HDB sellers are releasing around S$650,000 in equity on average from their resales. That's meaningful money. They're taking that capital straight into mid-tier condos like Waterside, which offers waterfront living at a more accessible price point than CCR projects. The math works. You get out of your HDB, pocket the gains, and step into a private residential property without stretching yourself too thin.
The profitability data backs this up. Across D19, 88 percent of sellers are making money on their resales. The median profit is S$520,000. That's not everyone walking away with S$3.38 million, but most people are seeing solid double-digit percentage returns over their holding period. Island-wide, 85 percent of sales are profitable with a median gain of S$450,000.
Three big things are driving this market right now. First, supply is tight. The Government Land Sales programme is releasing only 2 sites this quarter. That's low. The overall private residential pipeline through 2028 is around 25,000 units, which is 20 percent lower than the previous cycle. When supply is constrained, prices move up, especially in desirable pockets like D19.
Second, demand is surging. HDB flats are hitting their 30-year Minimum Occupation Period in waves. This year alone, 45,000 flats will be eligible for sale, up 25 percent from last year. These aren't first-time upgraders thinking about condos in 10 years. These are people today, now, with equity and buying power. That's a structural tailwind for the condo market, particularly mid-tier projects.
Third, financing is easier. The cost of borrowing has come down from its 2025 peak. Interest rates are lower, and LTV limits have been relaxed to 75 percent. That makes upgrading more affordable. On top of that, foreign buyer stamp duty was cut to 5 percent in January, which has opened up some investor demand.
But here's the reality check. If interest rates rise to 3.2 percent by the end of Q3, as some expect, affordability tightens. That cools demand. En bloc rumours around older TOCs like Waterside can create volatility too. Some buyers get excited about redevelopment upside. Others get nervous about uncertainty. That's something to watch.
I need to be honest. Waterside had some tailwinds that don't apply everywhere. It's in a prime waterfront location with only 1,152 units. That scarcity premium is real. The project benefits from being in a sweet spot for upgraders: affordable enough to access with HDB equity, but premium enough to hold value. Not every condo has that combination.
I'm also noticing that cash buyers are getting more aggressive. They can close faster, negotiate harder, and don't depend on bank approvals. If you're financing, you're often bidding against cash. That's a real competitive pressure that didn't exist five years ago.
And here's something people don't think about enough: lease decay. Waterside is a 99-year leasehold that completed in 2015. You've got about 90 years left on the lease now. That matters more than people think when you're trying to sell or refinance. A property with 70 years left on the lease is fundamentally different from one with 90 years. Banks know this. Buyers know this. Price adjustments will come.
Don't get seduced by the profit story and overpay for the waterfront glow. That S$3.38 million gain came from buying at the right time, at the right price, and holding long. You can't replicate that today by paying premium psf and hoping for the same returns.
The Waterside profit story is real and instructive. But it's a lesson in timing, patience, and picking the right asset at the right moment. You can't buy last decade's conditions at this decade's prices. What you can do is make a smart decision based on where the market actually is today.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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