Dover Drive just sold for S$1,556 per square foot per plot ratio. That's a headline, but here's what actually matters to you: land costs in Singapore are climbing 5.5% every year, while private property prices grew just 0.3% in the first quarter of 2026. That gap is widening, and it's changing how developers price new launches and how much leverage you have as a buyer right now.
When a GLS site goes for S$1,556 psf ppr, that's a signal about what developers expect to pay for future landbanks. Look back to 2019, and average residential GLS sites cost S$1,060 psf ppr. Today we're at S$1,463 psf ppr as of February 2026. That's a 5.5% annual climb, and it's relentless. Developers without existing freehold land or enough inventory in the bank need to keep bidding at these elevated prices just to stay in the game.
Here's the problem they face: if you're paying S$1,556 psf ppr for land, your construction and financing costs on top of that are substantial. The math only works if you can sell the finished units at a price that covers all those costs plus a reasonable margin. But private residential prices grew just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, the slowest pace in six quarters. That's a squeeze, and it's forcing developers to either absorb losses or push new launch prices higher to compensate.
In Q1 2026, private residential sales fell to 4,401 units. That's down roughly 40% from the previous quarter's 6,699 units. New unit sales outside of ECs dropped even harder, down 60% to just 1,294 units. On the surface, that looks alarming. But context matters here. 2025 was an exceptionally strong year. We launched 11,482 new private units and sold 10,815 of them. That's not normal demand. That was pent-up buying from higher income earners, people using parental gifts, and investors riding the wave from rising equity and crypto wealth in 2024 and early 2025.
What we're seeing now is normalisation, not collapse. Take-up rates on new launches in Q1 averaged 72%, and select projects achieved around 93%. Yes, volumes are softer, but projects that are well-located, well-priced, and well-built are still selling. The selectivity has just become sharper. Not every project gets the same momentum anymore.
Here's something that matters directly if you're an HDB upgrader. More than 13,000 HDB flats will reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026, nearly double the supply from 2025. At the same time, the HDB resale price index posted its first decline in approximately seven years in Q1 2026. That combination is significant. You've got more inventory hitting the resale market at softer prices, and that gives upgraders more breathing room and more negotiating power.
The catch is on the private side. With land costs at S$1,556 psf ppr and developers racing to maintain margins, new launches are pricing higher. We're seeing projects trading at S$1,893 to S$2,546 psf. That's the benchmark new launches are setting. If you're timing an upgrade from HDB to private, you're catching a moment where the HDB side is softening but private entry prices are climbing. The window to negotiate or find value is narrower than it was six months ago.
If you're an investor, the maths are getting tighter. Land costs are up 5.5% annually, but selling price growth is flatlined at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. Yield compression is real. Add in mortgage rates sitting around 3%, and the spread between what you're paying to borrow and what you're earning in capital appreciation or rental yield has tightened considerably. Volatility in crypto and equity markets has also cooled some of the speculative buying that drove 2025 demand.
For sellers, the news is mixed. If you own private property and you're thinking of selling, the slowdown in volumes means more inventory competing for buyers. That's not ideal. Landed property prices actually fell 1.8% in Q1, reversing the prior quarter's 3.4% gain. The momentum has clearly shifted. If you've been waiting for the "perfect time" to sell into strength, that window may have already closed. The question now is whether you're selling into a stabilising market or one that's cooling further.
The reality is straightforward: developers are caught between rising land costs and slow private price growth. They'll push new launch prices higher to maintain margins. Buyers have temporary leverage in a softer volume market. HDB upgraders should act while they still have negotiating power on the resale side. And investors need to focus on rental yield rather than betting on capital appreciation in 2026.
This isn't a crisis moment. It's a recalibration. And in recalibrations, the buyers and upgraders who move deliberately usually come out ahead.
Want to talk through your situation? Drop me a message on WhatsApp at +65 97501055 or visit keithtanboonkee.com. I'm here to help you navigate this market with clarity and confidence.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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