Right now, there's a real shift happening in Singapore's property market, and it's the kind of moment when smart buyers win but sellers need to get realistic. Q1 data shows private residential sales down 40%, HDB resale prices falling for the first time in about seven years, and landed properties actually dropping in value. This isn't a crash, but it's a clear signal that the easy money's gone and location plus genuine value matter more than ever.
Let's start with what the market actually did in Q1. Private condo prices crawled up just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, the slowest growth in six quarters. That's a huge drop from the 0.6% we saw in Q4 2025. If you look at the full year last year, we had a solid 3.3% gain, but that momentum's stalled hard now.
Sales volumes are the real story though. We sold about 4,041 to 4,401 units through mid-March, which is down roughly 40% compared to 6,699 units in the previous quarter. Even worse, new private sales excluding ECs fell 60% to just 1,294 units. That's not a small dip, that's a serious slowdown. HDB resale also took a hit for the first time in around seven years, with transaction volumes dropping from 3,529 units to 2,662 units.
What's interesting is that landed properties went negative, down 1.8% quarter-on-quarter after jumping 3.4% the quarter before. Non-landed held up better at plus 1%, which tells you the strength is in condos and apartments, not landed homes right now.
When you break it down by region, the picture gets clearer. RCR (Rest of Central Region) got hit the hardest with a 55% volume drop to 1,174 units. OCR (Outside Central Region) fell 29.7% to 1,788 units. Even CCR (Core Central Region) slipped 17.9% to 1,187 units. This isn't a CCR story anymore, it's a broad-based slowdown hitting the suburbs harder than prime areas.
But here's where it gets interesting. New launches actually moved 3,149 units, up about 20% from the previous quarter. And the take-up rate at launch stayed healthy at around 72%, even hitting 93% for select projects. That means developers who've priced realistically and picked good locations are still selling. Projects at S$1,893 to S$2,546 per square foot are moving. It's selective demand, but it's definitely there.
HDB is creating a headwind too. Over 13,000 HDB flats are hitting Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026, nearly double the supply from 2025. That's pushing down HDB resale prices and giving upgraders pause. Why jump into a condo at 3.0% to 3.5% interest rates when your HDB resale might be worth less and you're not confident about where the market's heading?
A few things are converging. First, we're normalizing after a very strong 2025 when about 10,815 units sold. That's a high base to compare against. Chinese New Year also affects transaction timing in Q1, so some deals probably shifted into Q2. But the bigger factors are rates staying sticky at 3.0% to 3.5%, which hurts affordability, and geopolitical uncertainty making buyers more cautious about big financial commitments.
The HDB supply surge is real too. When upgraders see HDB resale prices falling and over 13,000 flats hitting MOP this year, they naturally get more selective. Why rush into the private market when you can wait, see where HDB prices stabilize, and then decide? That's rational behavior, and it's suppressing private condo demand from upgraders, which is normally a strong buyer group.
If you're a buyer, this is actually good news. Here's what I'm seeing on the ground: price growth is soft at 0.3%, volumes are down 40%, and that means less competition and more room to negotiate. New launch take-up at 72% is healthy, but it's not frantic. If you've been waiting for a better entry point, this is closer to it than we've seen in months. Non-landed is holding up better than landed, so suburban condos (OCR projects) are worth serious attention even with 29.7% fewer units selling. You'll find better deals in neighborhoods outside the prime zones right now.
If you're a seller, you need to be realistic. Landed prices are down 1.8%, volumes are down 40%, and your property will sit longer if it's overpriced. New launches are taking 72% of buyer interest because they're new and developers have priced them for this market. A resale unit that's asking 5% or 10% above comparable new launches will struggle. Price competitively and price early. The market's moving slower, so don't wait hoping for a recovery.
If you're an investor, the outlook for 2026 is modest. Most forecasts show private prices up 1% to 2%, and only 3% to 5% in 2027 when new launches from recent high land prices come online. That's not a wealth-building story right now. Yields matter more than appreciation, and you'll need to pick submarkets carefully. Non-landed is holding up at plus 1% while landed is negative, so there's a split. Watch which neighborhoods are seeing new launches and HDB supply, because that affects rental demand too.
The big lesson here is that market cycles are real. We had a strong 2025, and now we're normalizing in 2026. That's healthy. It means the sentiment trades are done, and now we're back to fundamentals: location, value, interest rates, and actual demand. If you're buying, be patient and disciplined. If you're selling, be realistic. If you're investing, stick to your numbers.
This market isn't broken. It's just sane again.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
💬 WhatsApp Me