If you're thinking about upgrading, selling, or investing in Singapore property right now, pay attention. The market's sending some clear signals, and they're not all pointing in the same direction. Private prices are climbing 3% this year, new launches are selling like hotcakes (92-99% take-up rates), but here's what's catching me off guard: HDB resale is cooling for the first time in years, affordability gaps are widening, and the sweet spot for buyers has shifted sharply. What you do in the next few months could mean tens of thousands of dollars in your pocket or significant regret later.
Last year we saw 11,482 new private units launched, up 72.7% from 2024. Sales kept pace at 10,815 units, up 67.2% year-on-year. That's not a fluke. It tells me the market is hungry, and developers know it. Projects like Pinetree Hill hit 99.2% take-up, Chuan Park is at 92.1%, and Pinery Residences sold out its two-bedroom units at S$2,546 per square foot. That's serious demand.
But then February 2026 happened. Sales dropped 47.2% month-on-month to just 246 units. Now, some of that's seasonal (Chinese New Year, no new launches), but it's a reminder that this market doesn't move in a straight line. If you're a buyer sitting on the fence, thinking you can wait for a dip, you might be disappointed. Launches are flying, but windows can close quickly. If you're a seller, you know the drill: be realistic on price, because buyer momentum is strong but fragile.
Here's what's shifted on the ground. In the first quarter of 2026, the HDB Resale Price Index came in at 203.4, basically flat from the previous quarter (down 0.1%). That's the first drop in seven years. Volumes are down 4.5% year-on-year at 6,179 units. For three decades I've watched HDB cycles, and this is telling me something: upgraders aren't buying more HDB flats. They're moving directly into the private market, and they're choosing suburbs.
The suburbs I'm talking about are the OCR zones (Outside Central Region): places like Tengah, Jurong, Bukit Timah surrounds, and emerging areas. These suburbs offer what HDB upgraders actually need: affordability, space, and a fresh start without the maintenance headaches of a 30-year-old flat. Land costs in these areas are climbing too (GLS land prices average S$1,463 per square foot per plot ratio, up from S$1,060 in 2019, a 5.5% annual climb), but they're still cheaper than the city. If you're an HDB upgrader, act soon. As developers see this demand, OCR pricing will reprice upward. Window's closing on the current sweet pricing.
I've been tracking where the money is moving in the private market, and it's fascinating. In February, 62% of transactions in the CCR (Core Central Region) were for units under S$2.5 million. Think about that. The old CCR buyer used to be S$3M-plus. Now the bulk of activity is concentrated lower. That's not because there's less money in Singapore. It's because affordability is tightening, and even high-income earners are getting smarter about value.
What I'm seeing in the market is a classic repricing squeeze. New launches in the RCR (Rest of Central Region) are now competing directly with older CCR stock. A new condo in the RCR might cost you S$2.4M for a newer product with better facilities. An older CCR unit might also be S$2.4M but with higher maintenance costs and age. Smart buyers are catching this gap. If you're a buyer, that S$2.5M mark in the CCR is where the real hunt is happening. If you're a seller holding an older CCR unit above that price, you'll need patience and realistic expectations.
Government Land Sales (GLS) prices have climbed 5.5% annually since 2019. That's consistent with the private residential price index, which has grown 5.7% annually over the same period. What does this mean? Developers are paying more for land, and they will 100% pass those costs to buyers. The dover Drive GLS site topped out at S$951 million, implying potential asking prices above S$3,100 per square foot. When that project launches, you'll see why prices are where they are.
The supply pipeline is also thick with new launches expected through 2027. Vela Bay is bringing 515 units, Tengah Garden adds 863 units, and Hudson Place is due in Q2 2026. All of these have land costs baked in at current rates. If you're an investor, this matters because land cost inflation supports yields over the long term, but don't expect explosive short-term price growth. The market is shifting to 2-4% annual appreciation, not the 8-10% cycles we used to see.
The Singapore property market isn't broken, but it's reshaping. Demand is solid, fundamentals are sound, and the tight labour market means people still have jobs and confidence. What's shifted is where that demand is going and at what price. The suburbs are rising, the CCR is consolidating around a lower price band, and developers are moving fast to capture supply windows before costs climb further. If you're sitting on the sidelines thinking the next year will be easier, I'd reconsider. Act on conviction, or accept that you may miss this window.
If you're weighing a move in the next few months, I'd like to hear what's holding you back. Drop me a message on WhatsApp at +65 97501055 or visit keithtanboonkee.com. Let's talk through your options together. This market rewards decisiveness, and you shouldn't navigate it alone.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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