15 Days That Shook the Gulf

The Opening Question

When US and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes on Iran on the morning of 28 February 2026, most Singapore property buyers did one of two things: they panicked, or they froze. Neither was the right move.

Fifteen days later, the picture is clearer and considerably more complex. Oil has briefly touched US$120 per barrel. The Gulf is an active war zone. Singapore has deployed its air force to bring citizens home. And wealthy families from Dubai to Doha are quietly enquiring about CCR condos on Orchard Road.

This is the complete account.

The 15-Day Timeline

Singapore's Economic Exposure

Singapore is simultaneously one of the most vulnerable and most resilient economies in Asia to this conflict. Vulnerable because we import virtually all of our energy and our GDP is over 300% of our domestic economy in trade terms. Resilient because of the institutional quality of what we have built here.

Inflation: The Numbers Are Moving

Every US$10 increase in crude oil historically adds 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points to Singapore's CPI within one to two quarters. Oil has risen approximately US$21 to 28 from pre-conflict levels on a sustained basis. Under current conditions, core inflation toward 3.5 to 4% by Q3 2026 is the central scenario, not a downside risk. Singapore petrol is already at SGD $2.97 per litre.

Mortgage Rates: No Relief Before Q3

The CME FedWatch Tool as of 10 March showed markets pricing only a 4% chance of a Fed rate cut at the March 17 to 18 meeting. With oil above $90 and US inflation re-accelerating, markets are effectively pricing zero rate cuts in H1 2026. SORA-linked mortgage holders should not expect relief until Q3 at the earliest, and only if ceasefire terms lead to genuine resolution.

Shipping: The Fujairah Signal

Singapore handles approximately 37 million TEUs of container throughput annually. The fire at Fujairah's bunkering hub on 14 March signals that Gulf maritime infrastructure is under active attack. Sustained disruption increases shipping costs, war-risk insurance premiums, and supply chain friction for Singapore's importers and exporters.

The Singapore Property Market: Direct Impact

Construction Costs: Structural, Not Temporary

Singapore was already the most expensive construction market in Southeast Asia entering 2026 (Turner and Townsend: ~US$3,104/sqm). Pre-conflict 2026 construction inflation forecast was 5%. At sustained $100+ oil, the revised estimate is 9 to 13%, with upside risk to 15 to 18% if Kharg Island's oil infrastructure is struck.

Safe-Haven Capital Flow: Confirmed, Not Theoretical

ERA's own research published on 9 March notes that capital flows during geopolitical uncertainty favour markets with stronger scarcity dynamics. The CCR launch pipeline for 2026 is estimated at 44.7% lower than 2025 levels, pointing to a materially tighter supply environment. Limited new stock, coupled with underlying demand, may provide price stability within the segment.

What Reuters reported on approximately 9 March has been visible on the ground since. Dubai suffered a drone strike near Creek Harbour on 12 March. Kuwait's airport was hit. Bahrain and Oman have been struck. Wealthy Asian families and family offices with Gulf exposure are actively looking at Singapore. The 60% ABSD for foreign buyers is a known, fixed cost - for families moving generational wealth from a war zone, it is a reasonable price for institutional stability.

HDB Upgrader Demand: Structurally Intact

Approximately 13,480 HDB flats are hitting MOP in 2026, nearly double the prior year. This domestic demand pipeline is largely unaffected by the Iran conflict. It is driven by life stage, family size, income, and housing aspiration, not geopolitical headlines. This is the backbone of Singapore's private property market and it is still moving.

What Has Not Changed

• Unsold uncompleted private homes stand at 14,859 - the lowest in 15 quarters.
• TDSR rules mean every mortgage borrower has been stress-tested at elevated rates. No forced selling mechanism exists in this market.
• Singapore property prices correct through time, not through price collapse. Every past crisis that did not involve domestic policy failure resulted in a temporary volume reduction followed by recovery.
• New River Modern sold 90% on opening weekend at $3,266 psf. Narra Residences moved 135 units at launch. Buyers are still showing up.

Three Scenarios and Their Property Outcomes

Probability weightings revised as of Day 15. Trump has rejected all current deal terms. Ceasefire probability is 7%. Iran's capability is degraded 90% but the conflict continues.

What to Do Now: Strategy by Profile

Conclusion: The Stakes Have Risen. The Framework Holds.

This is the most serious geopolitical event to hit global markets since 2022. Brent briefly touched $120. Kharg Island has been struck. The Gulf is destabilising in ways that are directly sending capital to Singapore.

And yet the core framework for Singapore property holds.

TDSR-protected buyers cannot be forced to sell. Land supply is constitutionally limited. Domestic upgrader demand continues to build. MAS has the tools to manage inflation and has used them before. And Singapore is now, actively and measurably, the beneficiary of Gulf capital flight.

Our base case (Scenario B, 55%) points to a grinding conflict resolving in May, June 2026, with construction costs elevated throughout, rate cuts deferred, but the Singapore property market holding value and the prime segment outperforming on safe-haven demand.

If Scenario C plays out and the Gulf fully destabilises, Singapore property transactions freeze but prices hold - there is no forced selling mechanism in this market. The correct response is to have bought before the freeze.