HDB resale prices just dipped for the first time since 2019, and private condo prices are climbing. At the same time, we're seeing 13,400 HDB flats hitting their Minimum Occupation Period in 2026, plus nearly 20,000 new Build-To-Order launches. If you're thinking about upgrading, relocating, or investing, the market is sending you a pretty clear signal right now.
What I'm seeing on the ground is straightforward. HDB resale prices fell 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, hitting an index of 203.4. That's the first time prices have dipped since around 2019, and it matters because it breaks a seven-year uptrend. Don't panic if you're a seller, but do pay attention to why this is happening.
The reason? Supply. We're about to see 13,400 HDB flats reach their MOP in 2026 alone, which is roughly double what we saw in 2025. That number climbs to 18,900 units in 2027 and 21,300 in 2028. Add in the 19,600 new BTO flats launching this year, and many of them with shorter waiting periods than before, and you've got a lot of fresh inventory competing for buyers. People upgrading from HDB don't need to bid against resale prices anymore when they can get a brand-new flat with reasonable wait times.
In my view, this is actually good news for upgraders, but it's a pinch for sellers. If you're thinking of selling your HDB flat in the next two years, you're no longer in a seller's market. Prices won't fight you anymore because the supply of alternatives is growing faster than demand.
Here's where things get interesting. Private residential prices are up 0.3% quarter-on-quarter across all segments, and non-landed prices specifically gained 1.0% q/q to an index of 210.2. Annual forecasts are pointing to around +3% growth in private prices for 2026. On the surface, that sounds steady. But dig deeper, and there's more happening.
New launch take-up is exceptional. In the first quarter, 50% of private projects achieved 90% or higher take-up rates. Developers are moving units fast, which tells me there's real demand from end-users and investors. We launched 11,482 private units in 2025, up 72.7% year-on-year, and sold 10,815 units, up 67.2% year-on-year. That momentum is carrying forward into 2026.
But here's the reality check. Private transaction volumes actually fell 39.7% quarter-on-quarter, from 6,699 units in Q4 2025 to 4,041 units in Q1 2026. That's a softness in the secondary market. Buyers are more interested in buying new launches than resale flats right now. Meanwhile, land costs for Government Land Sales sites are averaging S$1,463 per square foot per plot ratio, up 5.5% annually. Developers are paying more for land, and that eventually feeds into pricing.
If you're sitting on an HDB flat and thinking about upgrading to a private condo, the timing is becoming clearer. Your HDB asset isn't going to appreciate as aggressively as it has over the past five years, but it's not depreciating either. You've got 13,400 new MOP flats hitting the market in 2026, which means more people will have cash to upgrade, and competition for resale HDB flats will intensify slightly. That pressure could keep your resale price flat or soft it further.
Private condo prices are still moving up at around +3% annually, driven by new supply and steady demand. If you're upgrading, you want to lock in before that momentum accelerates further. The gap between what you can sell your HDB for and what a private unit costs is working in your favor right now, but that window isn't permanent. Supply is elastic, and as more BTO and MOP flats enter the market, buyer psychology will shift.
What I tell upgraders is this: don't wait for a price dip in the private market that might not come. Instead, focus on timing your HDB sale relative to the new supply wave. If you're planning to upgrade within two years, moving sooner rather than later gives you more control over your timeline and pricing.
If you're an investor, you need to distinguish between the secondary market and new launches. The secondary market is soft. Transaction volumes are down nearly 40% quarter-on-quarter, and that matters if you're trying to exit a property or buy for steady cash flow. There's no urgency in the resale market right now.
New launches, on the other hand, are moving fast. Developers are hitting 90%+ take-up on many projects, and that's a signal of confidence from both end-users and investors. If you're looking to buy and hold, or to snap up a unit for upside, new launches are where you'll find demand. Just remember that you'll be competing with other investors and owner-occupiers, and you'll need to be ready to move quickly when projects launch.
For HDB investors, the calculus is changing. Rental yields on HDB flats have always been modest, and now you're facing softer resale appreciation as well. If you're holding for long-term capital gains, the next two years will test your patience. The smart move is to either focus on prime locations where demand is structural, or to rotate capital toward private investments where growth is steadier.
The bottom line? This isn't a downturn, and it's not a boom. It's a rebalancing. Supply is catching up to demand in HDB, and private condo growth is steady but not explosive. Your decisions should be based on your own timeline and goals, not on trying to time a market that's actually quite well-supplied right now. What's your next move? Let's talk about it.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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