HDB resale prices just dipped 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the first decline in over six years. But before you panic, here's what actually matters: resale volumes are bouncing back, nearly half of all deals are in the $500k to $750k sweet spot, and there's a real reason why this slowdown is actually fairer for buyers. If you're thinking about upgrading, selling, or investing in HDB right now, this shift changes the game.
Let me be direct about what's happening. The Resale Price Index fell to 203.4 in the first quarter from 204.0 at the end of 2025. It doesn't sound dramatic, and it's not meant to be. This is the first decline since the second quarter of 2019, which means we've had 26 consecutive quarters of either rising or flat prices. That's a genuinely long run, and what we're seeing now isn't a crash. It's a normalization.
What I'm seeing on the ground is that price growth has been slowing for five quarters straight before this dip. In 2024, HDB prices climbed 9.7%. Last year, that growth dropped to just 2.9%. The momentum had already lost steam. This quarter's 0.1% dip is less of a surprise and more of a natural correction after that sustained run.
Here's the kicker: mature estates actually posted gains of 0.3% in March, while non-mature estates rose 0.2%. So the overall dip doesn't tell the full story. Different parts of the HDB market are behaving differently, which means your strategy needs to be specific to your location and situation.
The real driver here is supply. In 2026, we're expecting 13,400 flats to hit their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) across Singapore. That's double the 6,900 that completed MOP in 2025. The numbers get bigger from here: 18,900 in 2027 and 21,300 in 2028. This isn't a one-quarter blip. This is a structural shift in the market.
On top of that, February's Build-To-Order (BTO) exercise showed strong demand for flats with shorter waiting times, under four years. That's diverting buyers away from the resale market. If you're a young couple who can wait three or four years for a new flat instead of buying a 10-year-old resale unit, suddenly the resale market becomes less attractive. The government has been spacing out BTO supply to manage demand, but those waiting times are getting shorter, and that changes buyer behavior.
What this means is sellers can't expect crazy price growth anymore. The market's getting fairer because there's finally enough supply to meet demand without artificial scarcity pushing prices up.
Resale volumes climbed to 6,179 transactions in the first quarter, up from 5,256 in the last three months of 2025. That's a solid rebound and it tells me liquidity is still there. Sellers aren't facing a dead market. But here's the context: that 6,179 is still below the 6,590 we saw in the same quarter last year, and it's the lowest volume we've seen since 2020.
Nearly 49% of all those first-quarter deals happened in the $500k to $750k price band. That's the sweet spot where upgrading families actually live. It's where the market is most active, most liquid, and where prices are finding their natural level. If you're looking to upgrade and you've got a budget in that range, you're in the most competitive part of the market, but you've also got the most options.
Projecting forward, I'd expect the full year 2026 to see around 26,000 to 27,000 transactions. That's steady demand, not a boom and not a crisis. It's a working market.
If you're upgrading from HDB to HDB or to private property: The easing in resale prices combined with more supply coming to market means you've got breathing room. You're not competing in a heated market anymore. Take your time, inspect properties carefully, and don't feel rushed. The BTO waits are also getting shorter, so if you're patient, a new flat might be within reach without overpaying for resale. But if you need space or a specific location now, there's more choice in the resale market at fairer prices.
If you're selling an HDB: Volume is rebounding, which is good news for liquidity. Your flat won't sit forever. But don't expect the same capital gains you might have seen in the last few years. Price growth is likely to stay below 5% annually going forward. Price your unit fairly, present it well, and be realistic about what the market will bear right now. Mature estates are holding their value better than you might expect, so location and condition matter more than ever.
If you're an investor: This isn't the market for aggressive capital appreciation plays anymore. Yields are more important now. With 13,400 units hitting MOP this year and more coming, there's less scarcity value. But steady demand from upgraders and young families means rental demand should hold up. Focus on long-term, stable returns rather than chasing short-term price bumps.
For everyone: Watch what happens in the next quarter. The April flash estimate for the Resale Price Index will tell us whether this dip is a one-time thing or the start of a new trend. Also pay attention to how BTO exercises play out over the next few months. Shorter waits will continue to influence who buys in the resale market and when they buy.
This is a transition quarter, not a crisis quarter. The market is rebalancing after years of tight supply and strong demand. That's actually healthy. Prices that rise too fast create problems for future buyers. What we're seeing now is the market finding a more sustainable level, and for most of you, that makes it a better place to make a decision.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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