If your family has been quietly discussing whether to sell the HDB, upgrade to a private condo, or hold on just a little longer, the Q1 2026 numbers deserve your full attention. The market is not crashing, it's not booming out of control either. What it's doing is something more nuanced, and if you misread it, you could make a decision that costs you real money.
Private residential prices rose 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q1 2026, the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. Non-landed homes led the way with a 1.3% gain, and Outside Central Region (OCR) non-landed properties posted the strongest performance at 2.2% quarter on quarter. Prices are still moving up, even as transaction volumes dropped nearly 40% over the same period.
On the HDB side, resale prices dipped 0.1% in Q1 2026, the first quarterly decline in close to seven years. That's a notable shift after years of relentless upward momentum. What makes it interesting is that million-dollar HDB transactions hit a fresh record of 412 deals in the same quarter. So while the overall index softened, well-located and larger flats are still commanding premium prices.
The financing environment has also shifted meaningfully. The three-month compounded SORA sat near 1.0% in early 2026, a far cry from the elevated rate environment we lived through not too long ago. That's feeding directly into affordability calculations for anyone on a floating-rate loan or about to take one out.
In my view, this market is splitting into two distinct stories, and most people are only reading one of them. The private OCR story is still a growth story. Suburban condos are absorbing demand steadily, prices are firming, and with SORA near 1%, the carrying cost argument for entry has improved considerably. This is not a frenzied market, but it's not a buyer's discount sale either.
The HDB story is more nuanced. What I'm seeing on the ground is that upgraders who have been waiting for the "right time" are starting to recalibrate. The 0.1% dip in the HDB Resale Price Index might look small in isolation, but when you combine it with approximately 13,480 flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026, that's nearly double the volume from 2025. More supply coming into the resale pool means more competition for sellers. The window to maximise your HDB exit value may be narrowing.
Here's the thing most people miss. In 25 years of watching this market, the segment that looks "boring" or "slow" is often the one quietly setting up the next move. OCR private prices growing at 2.2% while volumes are down tells me there's still genuine demand, just more selective buyers. That's a healthier signal than volume-driven speculation. I'd take measured growth with lower rates over a frenzy any day.
HDB upgraders: If your flat is approaching or has crossed its MOP, I'd be thinking seriously about your exit timeline. With a larger supply of MOP flats expected to hit the market over the next 12 months, the competition among HDB resale sellers will intensify in certain estates. You don't need to panic-sell, but you do need to price smartly and move with intention. Locking in a strong HDB resale price while private entry costs are supported by low SORA rates is a window, not a guarantee.
Private condo buyers and investors: The current setup is more buyer-friendly than the supply-tight environment of a few years ago. You have more choice, softer volumes, and cheaper financing. But I want to be direct here: the Q1 2026 data does not support waiting for a broad price correction in well-located OCR or city-fringe (RCR) condos. Capital appreciation is still alive in selected submarkets, and the yield math improves when your borrowing cost is near 1%. If you've been hesitating, the conditions right now are more favourable than they've been in some time. Pick the right asset, in the right location, at a defensible price point.
Families doing intergenerational planning: This one often goes undiscussed but it matters enormously. Rising private prices and record million-dollar HDB transactions mean the property decisions you make today, whether that's gifting, transferring, or timing an estate sale, carry real financial consequences. The stamp duty (ABSD) framework hasn't loosened, and there's no sign that's changing in 2026. If your family has property assets that need restructuring or succession planning, the cost of getting the sequencing wrong is high. Get proper advice before you act.
This is a market that rewards preparation over hesitation. OCR private prices are still climbing, HDB resale momentum is easing, SORA is making financing cheaper, and a wave of MOP supply is arriving. The families and investors who understand exactly where they sit in this market, and move with a clear plan, are the ones who come out ahead. If you want to work through what this means specifically for your situation, I'm happy to have that conversation directly. Reach out to me on WhatsApp at +65 97501055 or visit keithtanboonkee.com to get started.
25 years experience · 1,000+ transactions · 4,379 TOP units managed
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